Don't Blink

Prime Minister Carney is currently in cottage country, meeting with First Nations representatives to talk about access to indigenous lands. Then, he and the Premiers are going to talk. I am pretty sure pipelines, fossil fuels, potash and softwood lumber will come up, but the meeting is in Ontario. Auto tariffs will generate the most hand-wringing.

I'll need five minutes as I show my ignorance about auto manufacturing in Ontario. Here's what I "know." Ford has a big plant in Oakville, Chrysler has a big plant in Brampton, and GM is big in Oshawa. The Auto Pact with the U.S., protects well-paying union jobs here at home. Honda has a plant somewhere. Sound about right?

It's really not. Ford stopped building cars in Canada in the spring of 2023! They have promised to restart soon, no date provided. They still imported over 200,000 vehicles (mostly great big expensive pickup trucks) duty free. Ford Bad. In fact, the Big Three have reduced vehicle production in Canada from a high in 2004 of 1.9 million vehicles to just 420,000 last year. Honda built more. Toyota built way more. Chrysler is now Stellaris, and it employs 4,000 people in Brampton, down from 10,000 a few years ago. GM has cut 6,000 jobs in the past decade. The way the auto pact is supposed to work is to build one here, sell one here. Automakers tool plants for one or perhaps two (related) models. You can't build their entire product line in a single plant. Because of this, our two countries allow the Big Five (see how I did that?) to move cars and parts back and forth across the border, duty free. You build Ford Fusions in Oakville; you build F150's in Kansas. You can sell your whole model lineup in Canada ... up to how many you built in Canada. We consider all of them domestically made. Despite Trump being a moron, he should be able to comprehend my 177-word explanation or what a real economist or auto industry expert will tell him. Just like Arnhem, it is apparently A Bridge Too Far.

The problem our prime minister faces ... is that most Canadians know about as much about auto manufacturing in Canada as I did ... last week. There is no thirty-second sound bite that will explain this. You have to invest the whole five minutes. BTW, most of this is from a great article by David Booth in Drive.ca (link below).

So, there are no one-way tariffs that will work for any of the five companies making cars in Canada. I am confident that workers in rural South Carolina get less per hour working with inferior health care benefits than we would demand for Canadian workers. Therefore, all things being equal, auto plants will move to the U.S.. Then Mexico. Then China. Then Bangladesh. Then Africa. Left to their own devices, auto companies will slither down into the mud as far as we let them. What to do, what to do?

First, I'd put Carney on an airplane. A tour of the BYD and Xpeng plants in mainland China will play nicely in Detroit boardrooms. They will call Trump directly. Then, get the reps from those two Chinese compnaies over here to tour some vacant land near Guelph, or Acton, or Cannington, doesn't really matter does it? The thing is, let's not fool around here. Hookers and hot tubs. "Daddy needs a new auto plant." You see, the problem is any tariff on Toyotas going into the U.S. from Canada will trigger a plant move. The new plant might cost them a billion and a half, but 10% tariff is $500 million annually. That's make the new plant pay for itself in just three years. It is a straightforward decision for any board of directors. Our position must remain ... Build it here / Sell it here. If Trump doesn't want free trade on autos between our two countries ... fine. He should be told to reproduce at an alternate location. Carney said he relented on the digital tax as a bargaining chip in the bigger game. Fine, but he had better not blink this time. No tariffs, or lots of tariffs ... bring em on! Hmmm? I wonder if the Chinese know how to build pipelines?

My Optimum Week

Even though it was late in the month and I had all but spent my grocery budget, I couldn't resist. The combination of a dozen continuity offers and sale prices on things we buy anyway, had me sitting outside of my Zehr's (Eramosa) at 06:55, coffee in hand. Overall continuity was at $150 so the goal was to spend just over that number. 40,000 points were available. I alos hoped to grab my free donut, free iced tea, $5 gift card and get out before the crazy people arrived. My lists are scribbled hieroglyphics, so I put it into our regular format (above) so you can see how I did. Pretty good. Got $183 worth of groceries, spent $153 and got $38 back in points. I was back home at five to eight.

This week, there is a great Members Only deal on Highliner frozen fish. Opt for the tempura fish without the fries. Cavendish are better. If they sell out (and they will), get a rain check from customer service. Also, there is a great deal on raw frozen shrimp. Two dollars off and an extra two dollars in points. At $6 a bag, you can't beat it. I think they come out better than the pre-cooked ones anyway, but thawing them is a pain. Grown in Canada romaine hearts are now out rather than the U.S. Andy Boy variety and they are only $4. If you use K-cups (other than Tim Horton's) big time points are available. Very quiet on the Offer front as well. We get the normal continuity offers at $50 in a couple of categories but the overall offer is at $350. That's not going to happen this week. Here is your list:

What I'm Reading

Mitch Fountain’s review of Resurrection Walk (The Lincoln Lawyer, #7; Harry Bosch Universe, #38)

4/5: It’s hard to follow a five-star book with another one, but Connelley came close. With this book, he is back to the Haller / Bosch duo in a solid outing. Finding the needle in a haystack case of a wrongly imprisoned person falls to Bosch, and he doesn’t disappoint. Great watching him and Haller pull the threads of the state’s case apart, face a series of courtroom setbacks and right a wrong that strikes at the very core of Bosch’s raison d’être.

GoodreadsMichael Connelly

Mitch Fountain’s review of Foundation’s Fear (Second Foundation Trilogy, #1)

3/5: Three authors collaborating on a large-scale sci-fi trilogy might try to outdo each other. Benford had to go first and I think his efforts suffer from perhaps trying to set too high a bar. Foundations Fear feels like two novels. Benford beautifully conceived and wrote Hari Seldon’s real-world struggles and dilemmas in developing psychohistory. Our other two protagonists are Joan of Arc and Voltaire. They live in a virtual world of whirling clouds, snakes, cafes and conversations with some nameless deity. It felt like half the book was taken up with this dialogue and imagery. It was hard to…

GoodreadsGregory Benford

What We Are Watching

Girl's Soccer - They seemed to have usurped SWMBO's slavish devotion to Divorce Court, People's Court, Judy's Court and Hot Judge On The Right Bench. Joe Deek Ti Wall Day. I miss her. Oh, and Germany's goalie had a brain fart with like one minute to go in extra time, so it will be an England v Spain final on Sunday.

... and finally

Sometimes when I make one of SWMBO's favourite meals, she eats just a little too fast or just a little too much. Her tender stomach can reject this sort of abuse with disastrous effect. I had slow-cooked a brisket the day before and used paper-thin slices of it to make her a hot beef sandwich! Pair it with those Drive-Thru fries from Cavendish and a glass of ice-cold milk. Her idea of heaven. So, I am reading the recipe for Frog Balls (next week) and she announces, "Come take this before I puke!" Ah yes. The words every home chef wants to hear.

Mitch & Maddie